U.S. Markets closed

Did Changing Sentiment Drive Sovereign Metals's (ASX:SVM) Share Price Down A Worrying 69%?

Simply Wall St

Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card!

It is doubtless a positive to see that the Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX:SVM) share price has gained some 42% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. The share price has failed to impress anyone , down a sizable 69% during that time. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. However, in the best case scenario (far from fait accompli), this improved performance might be sustained.

View our latest analysis for Sovereign Metals

We don't think Sovereign Metals's revenue of AU$80,251 is enough to establish significant demand. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Sovereign Metals finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as Sovereign Metals investors might realise.

When it reported in December 2018 Sovereign Metals had minimal cash in excess of all liabilities consider its expenditure: just AU$374k to be specific. So if it hasn't remedied the situation already, it will almost certainly have to raise more capital soon. With that in mind, you can understand why the share price dropped 21% per year, over 5 years. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Sovereign Metals's cash levels have changed over time. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Sovereign Metals's cash levels have changed over time.

ASX:SVM Historical Debt, July 4th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Sovereign Metals shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 39% over the last year. That certainly beats the loss of about 21% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.