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Did Crédit Agricole's (EPA:ACA) Share Price Deserve to Gain 25%?

Simply Wall St

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Buying a low-cost index fund will get you the average market return. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. For example, the Crédit Agricole S.A. (EPA:ACA) share price return of 25% over three years lags the market return in the same period. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 14% in the last year.

See our latest analysis for Crédit Agricole

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Crédit Agricole was able to grow its EPS at 20% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 7.6% average annual increase in the share price. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 8.17.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ENXTPA:ACA Past and Future Earnings, April 8th 2019

We know that Crédit Agricole has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Crédit Agricole's TSR for the last 3 years was 45%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Crédit Agricole had a tough year, with a total loss of 10% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4.5%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Importantly, we haven't analysed Crédit Agricole's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FR exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.