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Did Juniper Networks's (NYSE:JNPR) Share Price Deserve to Gain 25%?

Simply Wall St

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Low-cost index funds make it easy to achieve average market returns. But across the board there are plenty of stocks that underperform the market. That's what has happened with the Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE:JNPR) share price. It's up 25% over three years, but that is below the market return. In the last year the stock price gained, albeit only 1.1%.

Check out our latest analysis for Juniper Networks

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years of share price growth, Juniper Networks actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 1.1% per year. Given the share price resilience, we don't think the (declining) EPS numbers are a good measure of how the business is moving forward, right now. Therefore, it makes sense to look into other metrics.

You can only imagine how long term shareholders feel about the declining revenue trend (slipping at 2.3% per year). What's clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren't matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation

Depicted in the graphic below, you'll see revenue and earnings over time. If you want more detail, you can click on the chart itself.

NYSE:JNPR Income Statement, June 25th 2019

Juniper Networks is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Juniper Networks the TSR over the last 3 years was 33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Juniper Networks shareholders gained a total return of 3.9% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3.6% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. If you would like to research Juniper Networks in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.