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Did You Manage To Avoid BMG Resources’s (ASX:BMG) Painful 60% Share Price Drop?

Simply Wall St

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it’s worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn’t blame long term BMG Resources Limited (ASX:BMG) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 60% over a half decade. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 23% in the last year.

Check out our latest analysis for BMG Resources

With just AU$15,746 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don’t think the market considers BMG Resources to have proven its business plan. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won’t provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it’s unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, investors may be hoping that BMG Resources finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as BMG Resources investors might realise.

BMG Resources has plenty of cash in the bank, with net cash sitting at AU$1.1m, when it last reported (June 2018). This gives management the flexibility to drive business growth, without worrying too much about cash reserves. But since the share price has dropped 17% per year, over 5 years, it seems like the market might have been over-excited previously. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how BMG Resources’s cash and debt levels have changed over time.

ASX:BMG Historical Debt, March 11th 2019

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn’t even have revenue. There’s no way to know its value easily. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We’d be remiss not to mention the difference between BMG Resources’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) and any discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. We note that BMG Resources’s TSR, at -49% is higher than its share price rise of -60%. When you consider it hasn’t been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders may have had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

Investors in BMG Resources had a tough year, with a total loss of 23%, against a market gain of about 9.6%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 13% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of BMG Resources by clicking this link.

BMG Resources is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.