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Did You Manage To Avoid Evolution Petroleum's (NYSEMKT:EPM) 41% Share Price Drop?

Simply Wall St

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Evolution Petroleum Corporation (NYSEMKT:EPM) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 41%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 19%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 38% lower than three years ago). Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 9.5% in thirty days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

See our latest analysis for Evolution Petroleum

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Unhappily, Evolution Petroleum had to report a 47% decline in EPS over the last year. This proportional reduction in earnings per share isn't far from the 41% decrease in the share price. Given the lower EPS we might have expected investors to lose confidence in the stock, but that doesn't seemed to have happened. Instead, the change in the share price seems to reduction in earnings per share, alone.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

AMEX:EPM Past and Future Earnings, November 24th 2019

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Evolution Petroleum's TSR for the last year was -38%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 19% in the last year, Evolution Petroleum shareholders lost 38% (even including dividends) . However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4.0% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before spending more time on Evolution Petroleum it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

We will like Evolution Petroleum better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.