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Did You Manage To Avoid Kohl's's (NYSE:KSS) 38% Share Price Drop?

Simply Wall St

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It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 38%. That's well bellow the market return of 1.4%. On the bright side, the stock is actually up 30% in the last three years. Even worse, it's down 30% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

Check out our latest analysis for Kohl's

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unhappily, Kohl's had to report a 7.7% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 38% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago. The P/E ratio of 9.92 also points to the negative market sentiment.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:KSS Past and Future Earnings, June 7th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Kohl's's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kohl's the TSR over the last year was -36%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Kohl's had a tough year, with a total loss of 36% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 1.4%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2.1%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before spending more time on Kohl's it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

But note: Kohl's may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.