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Did You Manage To Avoid Nexus Minerals's (ASX:NXM) Painful 60% Share Price Drop?

Simply Wall St

Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But long term Nexus Minerals Limited (ASX:NXM) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Sadly for them, the share price is down 60% in that time. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 6.1%.

Check out our latest analysis for Nexus Minerals

With just AU$588,739 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Nexus Minerals to have proven its business plan. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Nexus Minerals finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as Nexus Minerals investors might realise.

Nexus Minerals had cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$3.2m when it last reported (June 2019). That's not too bad but management may have to think about raising capital or taking on debt, unless the company is close to breaking even. With the share price down 26% per year, over 3 years , it seems likely that the need for cash is weighing on investors' minds. You can see in the image below, how Nexus Minerals's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values). You can see in the image below, how Nexus Minerals's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:NXM Historical Debt, January 15th 2020

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 25% in the last year, Nexus Minerals shareholders lost 18%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5.2% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Nexus Minerals (of which 3 are concerning!) you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.