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Did You Manage To Avoid Nvoi's (ASX:NVO) Devastating 83% Share Price Drop?

Simply Wall St

As every investor would know, you don't hit a homerun every time you swing. But serious investors should think long and hard about avoiding extreme losses. So we hope that those who held Nvoi Limited (ASX:NVO) during the last year don't lose the lesson, in addition to the 83% hit to the value of their shares. A loss like this is a stark reminder that portfolio diversification is important. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Nvoi because we don't have a long term history to look at.

We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

View our latest analysis for Nvoi

Nvoi recorded just AU$586,817 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems that the investors more focused on would could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). It seems likely some shareholders believe that Nvoi will significantly advance the business plan before too long.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Nvoi has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

When it reported in December 2018 Nvoi had minimal net cash consider its expenditure: just AU$234k to be specific. So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. That probably explains why the share price is down 83% in the last year. The image below shows how Nvoi's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.

ASX:NVO Historical Debt, April 12th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. You can click here to see if there are insiders selling.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Nvoi's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. We note that Nvoi's TSR, at -77% is higher than its share price return of -83%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

While Nvoi shareholders are down 77% for the year, the market itself is up 11%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. With the stock down 33% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course Nvoi may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.