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Did You Miss EMCOR Group's (NYSE:EME) Impressive 105% Share Price Gain?

Simply Wall St

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. For example, the EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) share price has soared 105% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that.

See our latest analysis for EMCOR Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, EMCOR Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 18% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 15% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:EME Past and Future Earnings, August 2nd 2019

We know that EMCOR Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think EMCOR Group will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, EMCOR Group's TSR for the last 5 years was 111%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that EMCOR Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 9.2% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 16% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. Before spending more time on EMCOR Group it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

We will like EMCOR Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.