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Did You Miss Invesco Mortgage Capital's (NYSE:IVR) 16% Share Price Gain?

Simply Wall St

Investors can buy low cost index fund if they want to receive the average market return. But in any diversified portfolio of stocks, you'll see some that fall short of the average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (NYSE:IVR) share price is up 16% in the last three years, that falls short of the market return. At least the stock price is up over the last year, albeit only by 1.4%.

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See our latest analysis for Invesco Mortgage Capital

Because Invesco Mortgage Capital is loss-making, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Invesco Mortgage Capital's revenue trended up 8.1% each year over three years. That's pretty nice growth. The annual gain of 5.0% over three years is better than nothing, but hardly impresses. So it's possible that expectations were elevated in the past, muting returns over three years. Of course, if the company can tread the path to profitability, then the current price might be too pessimistic.

Depicted in the graphic below, you'll see revenue and earnings over time. If you want more detail, you can click on the chart itself.

NYSE:IVR Income Statement, May 17th 2019

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Invesco Mortgage Capital in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Invesco Mortgage Capital, it has a TSR of 58% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Invesco Mortgage Capital shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 10.0%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.