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Did You Miss Koda's (SGX:BJZ) Whopping 303% Share Price Gain?

Simply Wall St

Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. For example, the Koda Ltd (SGX:BJZ) share price is up a whopping 303% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will.

Check out our latest analysis for Koda

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last half decade, Koda became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Koda share price is up 202% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 52% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 45% average annual increase in the share price (over three years, again). So one might argue that investor sentiment towards the stock hss not changed much over time. Arguably the share price is reflecting the earnings per share.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SGX:BJZ Past and Future Earnings, September 9th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Koda's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Koda, it has a TSR of 398% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Koda shareholders are down 16% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 2.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 38%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Importantly, we haven't analysed Koda's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

Of course Koda may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.