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Did You Miss PACCAR’s 27% Share Price Gain?

Simply Wall St

Low-cost index funds make it easy to achieve average market returns. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. For example, the PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) share price return of 27% over three years lags the market return in the same period. At least the stock price is up over the last year, albeit only by 0.9%.

Check out our latest analysis for PACCAR

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

PACCAR was able to grow its EPS at 11% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 8.3% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 10.84.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NasdaqGS:PCAR Past and Future Earnings, March 2nd 2019

We know that PACCAR has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think PACCAR will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for PACCAR the TSR over the last 3 years was 42%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It’s good to see that PACCAR has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 6.4% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 4.4%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

We will like PACCAR better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.