Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Atlantic American (NASDAQ:AAME) share price has dived 31% in the last thirty days. That drop has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 45% in that time.
Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower share price makes a stock more attractive to potential buyers. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. Perhaps the simplest way to get a read on investors' expectations of a business is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E implies that investors have high expectations of what a company can achieve compared to a company with a low P/E ratio.
How Does Atlantic American's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?
Atlantic American's P/E of 75.11 indicates some degree of optimism towards the stock. The image below shows that Atlantic American has a significantly higher P/E than the average (16.8) P/E for companies in the insurance industry.
Atlantic American's P/E tells us that market participants think the company will perform better than its industry peers, going forward. The market is optimistic about the future, but that doesn't guarantee future growth. So investors should delve deeper. I like to check if company insiders have been buying or selling.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
If earnings fall then in the future the 'E' will be lower. Therefore, even if you pay a low multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become higher in the future. Then, a higher P/E might scare off shareholders, pushing the share price down.
Atlantic American shrunk earnings per share by 55% over the last year. And it has shrunk its earnings per share by 38% per year over the last five years. This could justify a pessimistic P/E.
Remember: P/E Ratios Don't Consider The Balance Sheet
One drawback of using a P/E ratio is that it considers market capitalization, but not the balance sheet. That means it doesn't take debt or cash into account. Hypothetically, a company could reduce its future P/E ratio by spending its cash (or taking on debt) to achieve higher earnings.
Such spending might be good or bad, overall, but the key point here is that you need to look at debt to understand the P/E ratio in context.
Is Debt Impacting Atlantic American's P/E?
Atlantic American's net debt is 63% of its market cap. This is a reasonably significant level of debt -- all else being equal you'd expect a much lower P/E than if it had net cash.
The Bottom Line On Atlantic American's P/E Ratio
Atlantic American's P/E is 75.1 which suggests the market is more focussed on the future opportunity rather than the current level of earnings. With significant debt and no EPS growth last year, shareholders are betting on an improvement in earnings from the company. Given Atlantic American's P/E ratio has declined from 109.0 to 75.1 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is significantly less confident about the business today, than it was back then. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for a contrarian, it may signal opportunity.
When the market is wrong about a stock, it gives savvy investors an opportunity. People often underestimate remarkable growth -- so investors can make money when fast growth is not fully appreciated. Although we don't have analyst forecasts you could get a better understanding of its growth by checking out this more detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Of course you might be able to find a better stock than Atlantic American. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have grown earnings strongly.
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