Big River Industries Limited (ASX:BRI), which is in the forestry business, and is based in Australia, received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the ASX over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s take a look at Big River Industries’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in Big River Industries?
According to my relative valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Big River Industries’s ratio of 22.39x is above its peer average of 13.33x, which suggests the stock is overvalued compared to the Forestry industry. In addition to this, it seems like Big River Industries’s share price is quite stable, which could mean two things: firstly, it may take the share price a while to fall back down to an attractive buying range, and secondly, there may be less chances to buy low in the future once it reaches that value. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta.
What kind of growth will Big River Industries generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Big River Industries’s revenue growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in BRI’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe BRI should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on BRI for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for BRI, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Big River Industries. You can find everything you need to know about Big River Industries in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Big River Industries, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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