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Does Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation’s (AGM) PE Ratio Signal A Buying Opportunity?

Jacob Boyd

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE:AGM) is trading with a trailing P/E of 8.8x, which is lower than the industry average of 24x. While AGM might seem like an attractive stock to buy, it is important to understand the assumptions behind the P/E ratio before you make any investment decisions. Today, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for. See our latest analysis for AGM

Demystifying the P/E ratio

NYSE:AGM PE PEG Gauge Sep 16th 17

P/E is a popular ratio used for relative valuation. By comparing a stock’s price per share to its earnings per share, we are able to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.

Formula

Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share

P/E Calculation for AGM

Price per share = 64.77

Earnings per share = 7.397

∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = 64.77 ÷ 7.397 = 8.8x

The P/E ratio itself doesn’t tell you a lot; however, it becomes very insightful when you compare it with other similar companies. Ideally, we want to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar characteristics as AGM, such as size and country of operation. One way of gathering a peer group is to use firms in the same industry, which is what I’ll do. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar P/E ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different.

AGM’s P/E of 8.8x is lower than its industry peers (24x), which implies that each dollar of AGM’s earnings is being undervalued by investors. As such, our analysis shows that AGM represents an under-priced stock.

A few caveats

While our conclusion might prompt you to buy AGM immediately, there are two important assumptions you should be aware of. The first is that our peer group actually contains companies that are similar to AGM. If this isn’t the case, the difference in P/E could be due to some other factors. For example, if you are inadvertently comparing lower risk firms with AGM, then AGM’s P/E would naturally be lower than its peers, since investors would value those with lower risk with a higher price. The other possibility is if you were accidentally comparing higher growth firms with AGM. In this case, AGM’s P/E would be lower since investors would also reward its peers’ higher growth with a higher price. The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing AGM to are fairly valued by the market. If this does not hold, there is a possibility that AGM’s P/E is lower because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.

NYSE:AGM Future Profit Sep 16th 17

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Since you may have already conducted your due diligence on AGM, the undervaluation of the stock may mean it is a good time to top up on your current holdings. But at the end of the day, keep in mind that relative valuation relies heavily on critical assumptions I've outlined above.

Are you a potential investor? If you are considering investing in AGM, looking at the PE ratio on its own is not enough to make a well-informed decision. You will benefit from looking at additional analysis and considering its intrinsic valuation along with other relative valuation metrics like PEG and EV/Sales.

PE is one aspect of your portfolio construction to consider when holding or entering into a stock. But it is certainly not the only factor. Take a look at our most recent infographic report on Federal Agricultural Mortgage for a more in-depth analysis of the stock to help you make a well-informed investment decision. Since we know a limitation of PE is it doesn't properly account for growth, you can use our free platform to see my list of stocks with a high growth potential and see if their PE is still reasonable.


To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.