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Does Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) Have A Particularly Volatile Share Price?

Ben Rossbaum

If you’re interested in Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first type is company specific volatility. Investors use diversification across uncorrelated stocks to reduce this kind of price volatility across the portfolio. The second sort is caused by the natural volatility of markets, overall. For example, certain macroeconomic events will impact (virtually) all stocks on the market.

Some stocks mimic the volatility of the market quite closely, while others demonstrate muted, exagerrated or uncorrelated price movements. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said ‘volatility is far from synonymous with risk’ in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

Check out our latest analysis for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

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What we can learn from KTOS’s beta value

Given that it has a beta of 1.96, we can surmise that the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If this beta value holds true in the future, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions shares are likely to rise more than the market when the market is going up, but fall faster when the market is going down. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Kratos Defense & Security Solutions’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

NasdaqGS:KTOS Income Statement Export January 21st 19

Could KTOS’s size cause it to be more volatile?

With a market capitalisation of US$1.5b, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a small cap stock. However, it is big enough to catch the attention of professional investors. It’s not particularly surprising that it has a higher beta than the overall market. That’s because it takes less money to influence the share price of a smaller company, than a bigger company.

What this means for you:

Beta only tells us that the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions share price is sensitive to broader market movements. This could indicate that it is a high growth company, or is heavily influenced by sentiment because it is speculative. Alternatively, it could have operating leverage in its business model. Ultimately, beta is an interesting metric, but there’s plenty more to learn. This article aims to educate investors about beta values, but it’s well worth looking at important company-specific fundamentals such as Kratos Defense & Security Solutions’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for KTOS’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for KTOS’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has KTOS been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of KTOS’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how KTOS measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.