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Does Market Volatility Impact Green Plains Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GPRE) Share Price?

Simply Wall St

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If you're interested in Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The second sort is caused by the natural volatility of markets, overall. For example, certain macroeconomic events will impact (virtually) all stocks on the market.

Some stocks see their prices move in concert with the market. Others tend towards stronger, gentler or unrelated price movements. Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). While we should keep in mind that Warren Buffett has cautioned that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk', beta is still a useful factor to consider. To make good use of it you must first know that the beta of the overall market is one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

See our latest analysis for Green Plains

What GPRE's beta value tells investors

Given that it has a beta of 1.14, we can surmise that the Green Plains share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If the past is any guide, we would expect that Green Plains shares will rise quicker than the markets in times of optimism, but fall faster in times of pessimism. Share price volatility is well worth considering, but most long term investors consider the history of revenue and earnings growth to be more important. Take a look at how Green Plains fares in that regard, below.

NasdaqGS:GPRE Income Statement, July 9th 2019

Could GPRE's size cause it to be more volatile?

Green Plains is a rather small company. It has a market capitalisation of US$439m, which means it is probably under the radar of most investors. It takes less money to influence the share price of a very small company. This may explain the excess volatility implied by this beta value.

What this means for you:

Since Green Plains has a reasonably high beta, it's worth considering why it is so heavily influenced by broader market sentiment. For example, it might be a high growth stock or have a lot of operating leverage in its business model. In order to fully understand whether GPRE is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Green Plains’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for GPRE’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for GPRE’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has GPRE been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of GPRE's historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how GPRE measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.