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Danny Riley

It’s also a good time to take a vacation ...

Planning ahead

While the June triple witching is still several weeks away, it’s alway good to plan ahead, and in today’s Opening Print we are going to give you a small glimpse of some things to come. While April is prone to weakness around tax time, it’s also one of the three best-performing months of the year, alongside November and December. But the end of April also marks the end of the “best six months” for stocks.

May/June disaster zone

After the best 6 months for stocks (November to April), there is a tendency for the S&P to weaken. According to the Trader’s Almanac, the May/June disaster area between 1965 and 1985 had the S&P down 15 out of 20 Mays, but between 1985 and 1997 May was the best month, up 13 in a row with an average gain of 3.3% per year. Over the last 14 Mays, 7 have been up and  7 have been down. While all the ups and downs may not sound that bad, we still think it’s important to have a forward look at the markets heading into the summer months.

The Pit Bull has said many times that the S&P tends to make a high around April 10, and the S&P made its latest high on Thursday, April 11. While MrTopStep met our 1585 upside objective, the Pit Bull nailed the high within one day.

For today:

  • It’s 7:15 a.m. and the ESM is trading 1562.50, up 6.5 handles; crude is down 80 cents at 88.39; and the euro is down 70 pips at 1.2994.
  • In Asia, 8 out of 11 markets closed lower (Shanghai Comp -2.57%, Hang Seng -1.08%, Nikkei -0.29%).
  • In Europe, 12 out of 12 markets are trading higher or unched (CAC +02.66%, DAX +1.80%).
  • Today’s headline: "U.S. Stock Futures Gain; Travelers, DuPont, Netflix Rise"
  • Economic calendar: FHFA Housing Price Index, new home sales and earnings from  Apple, AT&T, Travelers, Delta, Norfolk Southern, United Technologies, Amgen
  • Fair value: S&P +5.70, NASDAQ +14.03

Danny Riley is a 34-year veteran of the trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985. 


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DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the above report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities.