Does S&P 500 Record Spur Rise in Emerging Markets?
This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com.
The S&P 500 reached an all-time high in today's market session, tying the longest bull market recorded and could go down in history as the longest ever by Wednesday's session, but does this signal an end to its serendipitous run and the start of a rise in emerging markets?
As the capital markets in the United States go, maybe the emerging markets are soon to follow.S&P 500 ETFs gained on the index's record-setting momentum--the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.34%, the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) gained 0.33% and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) was up 0.34%.
While the gain in S&P 500 ETFs was to be expected, the ripple effects made their way into emerging markets ETFs. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) rose 1.29%, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: VWO) gained 1.09% and the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) rose 1.28%--all higher gains versus the S&P 500 ETFs.
Related: S&P 500 Ties Record for Longest Bull Market
Come Wednesday, the bull market will officially turn 3,453 days old, making it the longest in history. Today, the S&P 500 tied the bull market record that ran from October 1990 to March 2000, but does this signal the chapter closing on opportunities in the U.S. capital markets and a new one beginning for emerging markets?
EEM, VWO and IEMG are all down from a year-to-date performance standpoint. EEM has lost 4.17%, VWO is down 3.63% and IEMG is in the red 4.13%, but savvy investors could see the opportunity in the dip given the cheaper valuations as well as their current market cycles relative to the U.S. capital markets' late cycle.
“Opportunities right now are abroad,” Samantha Azarello, Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan ETFs, told ETF Trends. “I know international markets have not done the greatest year to date so there’s some hesitation there, but these markets compared to the US have a lot more runway, their valuations are relatively cheaper, they have more earnings firepower, and they’re just earlier in their cycles.”
According to Nasdaq, "trading volumes continue to lag despite continued chatter of the "longest bull run" in modern history." Meanwhile, the volume of trading activity picked up on emerging markets, especially last week when the economic crisis in Turkey reached fever pitch.
Per a report by CNBC, "even with its ongoing currency crisis, last week Turkey saw its highest weekly inflows since the first week of January 2013, according to recent weekly data from EPFR Global." This could also mean that emerging markets will be more susceptible to geopolitical issues, which was seen as Turkey contagion invaded markets abroad.
Nonetheless, if emerging markets can effectively deflect the geopolitical news and investors can focus on fundamentals, it could be opportunities in the international space that will take the helm as the capital markets in the U.S. delve deeper into their late cycle.
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