Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card!
Today we'll take a closer look at Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE:PEB) from a dividend investor's perspective. Owning a strong business and reinvesting the dividends is widely seen as an attractive way of growing your wealth. Yet sometimes, investors buy a stock for its dividend and lose money because the share price falls by more than they earned in dividend payments.
With a nine-year payment history and a 5.4% yield, many investors probably find Pebblebrook Hotel Trust intriguing. We'd agree the yield does look enticing. There are a few simple ways to reduce the risks of buying Pebblebrook Hotel Trust for its dividend, and we'll go through these below.
Companies (usually) pay dividends out of their earnings. If a company is paying more than it earns, the dividend might have to be cut. As a result, we should always investigate whether a company can afford its dividend, measured as a percentage of a company's net income after tax. Although Pebblebrook Hotel Trust pays a dividend, it was loss-making during the past year. A payout ratio above 100% is definitely an item of concern, unless there are some other circumstances that would justify it.
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust paid out 89% of its cash flow last year. This may be sustainable but it does not leave much of a buffer for unexpected circumstances.
REITs like Pebblebrook Hotel Trust often have different rules governing their distributions, so a higher payout ratio on its own is not unusual.
Is Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's Balance Sheet Risky?
As Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has a meaningful amount of debt, we need to check its balance sheet to see if the company might have debt risks. A rough way to check this is with these two simple ratios: a) net debt divided by EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), and b) net interest cover. Net debt to EBITDA measures total debt load relative to company earnings (lower = less debt), while net interest cover measures the ability to pay interest on the debt (higher = greater ability to pay interest costs). With net debt of 8.82 times its EBITDA, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust could be described as a highly leveraged company. While some companies can handle this level of leverage, we'd be concerned about the dividend sustainability if there was any risk of an earnings downturn.
We calculated its interest cover by measuring its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), and dividing this by the company's net interest expense. With EBIT of 1.92 times its interest expense, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's interest cover is starting to look a bit thin. High debt and weak interest cover are not a great combo, and we would be cautious of relying on this company's dividend while these metrics persist.
Remember, you can always get a snapshot of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's latest financial position, by checking our visualisation of its financial health.
From the perspective of an income investor who wants to earn dividends for many years, there is not much point buying a stock if its dividend is regularly cut or is not reliable. Looking at the last decade of data, we can see that Pebblebrook Hotel Trust paid its first dividend at least nine years ago. During the past nine-year period, the first annual payment was US$0.48 in 2010, compared to US$1.52 last year. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% a year over that time.
The dividend has been growing pretty quickly, which could be enough to get us interested even though the dividend history is relatively short. Further research may be warranted.
Dividend Growth Potential
Examining whether the dividend is affordable and stable is important. However, it's also important to assess if earnings per share (EPS) are growing. Over the long term, dividends need to grow at or above the rate of inflation, in order to maintain the recipient's purchasing power. Earnings have grown at around 3.2% a year for the past five years, which is better than seeing them shrink! Still, the company has struggled to grow its EPS, and currently pays out 119% of its earnings. Limited recent earnings growth and a high payout ratio makes it hard for us to envision strong future dividend growth, unless the company should have substantial pricing power or some form of competitive advantage.
When we look at a dividend stock, we need to form a judgement on whether the dividend will grow, if the company is able to maintain it in a wide range of economic circumstances, and if the dividend payout is sustainable. We're not keen on the fact that Pebblebrook Hotel Trust paid dividends despite reporting a loss over the past year, although fortunately its dividend was covered by cash flow. Unfortunately, earnings growth has also been mediocre, and we think it has not been paying dividends long enough to demonstrate resilience across economic cycles. In summary, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has a number of shortcomings that we'd find it hard to get past. Things could change, but we think there are likely more attractive alternatives out there.
Earnings growth generally bodes well for the future value of company dividend payments. See if the 12 Pebblebrook Hotel Trust analysts we track are forecasting continued growth with our free report on analyst estimates for the company.
If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of dividend stocks yielding above 3%.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.