What does Pennsylvania's GOP Senate race tell us about November's election?
It may be weeks before Republican voters know who will face off against Democrat John Fetterman in the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania.
A razor thin margin of about 1,000 votes kept Mehmet Oz ahead of Dave McCormick Saturday after over 1.34 million GOP voters appeared split over who best will represent them in Washington next year.
The margin is well within the 0.5% percentage of total votes that the state’s election laws require to trigger an automatic recount, a process that could prevent a winner in last Tuesday’s primary from being named until June 7.
PA Senate live coverage:PA 2022 primary coverage - Oz still has slight lead over McCormick in US Senate race
Either candidate will have to face a divided party while addressing national issues such as inflation and reproductive rights as they try to sway Democrats, independents and other voters away from the progressive populist Fetterman in November.
Will the real Pennsylvanian please stand up?
For Oz and McCormick, the race to represent Pennsylvania in the Senate has been a contest that challenged their right to represent the commonwealth as “out-of-state” newcomers.
Apart from being a longtime New Jersey resident, Oz’s dual citizenship with Turkey, where his mother still lives, made him the target of relentless doubts from his GOP opponents over his ability to represent not just Pennsylvanians but Americans as well.
Oz has said previously he would renounce his citizenship with Turkey if elected, but has never referred to his status as a negative.
McCormick, who was born and raised in Pennsylvania, was often grouped in with Oz’s outsider status for living in Connecticut for 15 years prior to jumping into the race in late 2021.
Gloves off in GOP Debates:On PA campaign trail: GOP Senate candidates get nasty, Fetterman a solid frontrunner
The brunt of the residency attacks fell on Oz, with McCormick able to shirk off the criticism easier by hammering on his Pennsylvania roots and status as a veteran of the U.S. military.
Even while campaigning against three Democratic challengers, Fetterman managed to get in a few punches at Oz and McCormick using some of the same “political tourist” comments used by several of the seven candidates running for the GOP ballot spot.
“Call me old fashioned, but I think if you’re going to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate, you should *actually* live in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman posted on Twitter in late April.
The primary will almost certainly not be the last time Fetterman raises the issue for either candidate, but it’s clear from Tuesday’s results that many Republican voters won’t be swayed by a change of address.
Collectively, Oz and McCormick secured about 62% of the Republican votes cast in their race, and a Monmouth University poll released late last month indicated most GOP voters didn’t seem to care where Oz lived prior to 2021.
Fetterman has also recently drawn more attention to the source of his campaign donations - after easily securing a primary victory with nearly 59% of the vote. His campaign emails focused on how much in individual, one-time contributions he netted, while promising to turn away huge PAC and special interest group donations.
Campaign funding is frequently a focus raised by candidates and political groups, especially in races for national offices.
McCormick is currently ahead of Oz in terms of total contributions raised as of the end of April, according to Federal Elections Commission data.
McCormick has about $15.9 million raised to Oz’s $15 million, but Fetterman has managed to raise more than any candidate in the race on either ballot at $16 million.
At least $12.7 million of Fetterman’s coffers have been small donations, while Oz has only managed to reign in $659,504 and McCormick just $218,516 in small contributions.
Oz and McCormick have also relied heavily on their own money so far, with Oz putting up $12 million for his own campaign and McCormick loaning his campaign $11 million.
Given how rising inflation and gas prices are impacting voters at the pump, both candidates are likely to see their own wealth and ability to connect with middle class voters come into play this election.
The two saw similar attacks at Republican debates last month, especially from candidate Jeff Bartos, who said the two “can’t find Main Street” let alone help the Pennsylvanians living there.
Fortunately for both of the potential candidates, Republicans have made a lot of inroads over the past several years pulling blue-collar Democratic voters into the GOP.
Veteran political analyst Terry Madonna, a political fellow at Millersville University, recalled the surge of victories Republicans saw during the 2021 municipal election, especially in suburban areas.
Madonna said in a recent interview that past county, municipal and school board elections show “Republicans are more enthusiastic and more excited to vote,” and those national issues are likely to further draw those voters out in November.
About 38% of registered Republicans cast a ballot in the GOP Senate race, while turnout for Democrats was about 30%, based on state voter registration estimates as of May 16.
Fetterman’s victory in the Democratic race was much more secure than any of the Republican frontrunners' spot was in theirs, with the Democrat often polling at more than 40% support in April and May.
Fetterman’s biggest challenge in the coming months might come down to the “Midterm Curse,” according to Madonna.
“In midterm elections since the end of WWII, the party that’s held the presidency has lost seats in Congress,” Madonna said.
In other words, the lower the current president’s approval rating, the worse that president’s party seems to do in the next election.
While Fetterman will be facing “a referenda on (Biden’s) performance,” according to Madonna, Oz or McCormick could be facing off against former President Donald Trump’s popularity in November.
Establishment Republicans vs. Trump vs MAGA
As last week’s primary results left the Trump-endorsed Oz preparing a fight to secure a narrow victory, another high-profile candidate with the former president’s blessing easily won his race. State Sen. Doug Mastriano easily beat out the eight other candidates on the Republican ballot for governor of Pennsylvania, with 44% of the vote.
Establishment Republican leaders across the state began pushing back against Mastriano over his electability against Democrat Josh Shapiro just days before the polls opened.
While Trump’s endorsement for Mastriano might have helped the state lawmaker secure a strong victory, political strategist and a founder of Allentown-based The Liddle Group said it only kept Oz afloat in his race.
“I think Trump’s endorsement stabilized (Oz), but I don’t know that it’s given him a boost, per se,” said Chen.
Oz leaned heavily into Trump’s endorsement at debates weeks before the primary, but attacks on Oz’s past statements warning against overturning Roe v. Wade and a show he did on transgender children seemed to resonate with voters.
Trump voters didn’t find a clear alternative to Oz in McCormick either. Instead, they seemed to veer more towards Barnette as she carved out a niche in the race as the true Make America Great Again representative.
Republicans debate in April:The PA Republican US Senate candidates debated twice this week: Here's what we learned
Barnette pushed back on Trump’s endorsement of Oz early by casting herself as the main America First candidate, saying the former president may have coined “MAGA” but it was her supporters who made the movement happen.
Barnette also had the support of Mastriano and his base, a blue-collar boost that Madonna also noted is probably where she made the most gains against Oz and McCormick.
During her meteoric rise in the final week before the primary, Chen added that Barnette was almost peaking at the right time.
“I think we’ve been seeing this in the works and now, at crunch time, you’ve got people who don’t like Oz and they don’t like McCormick … couple that with the fact that Barnette is trying to go for, as she said, the ‘Ultra MAGA’ lane and I think you’ve got the perfect storm that you see right now,” said Chen.
An onslaught of questions about Barnette’s past, including statements described as anti-LGBTQ and anti-Muslim, began circulating online and shared by prominent conservative figures like Sean Hannity and even Trump himself.
Barnette Jan. 6 photos raise concerns:Photos of Senate candidate Kathy Barnette marching near Proud Boys on Jan. 6 surface online. Will it matter?
Barnette even blamed Hannity for her loss in a message to supporters on social media last week, saying the conservative pundit “single-handedly” cost her a win and “interfered” in the primary.
The relationship between Republican voters, party leaders and Trump is intricate and complex, and it makes a future race for either McCormick or Oz a complicated proposition.
A fractured GOP base against unified Democrats
The main goal in a primary race, at least in states with a closed primary like Pennsylvania, is to attract the most voters of that candidate's respective party.
General elections are all about the big tent, pulling in voters from both major parties along with independents and nonaffiliated voters.
Trump is a polarizing figure for many, which is probably why there was as much pushback against the more far-right candidates in both the Senate and Governor races.
Mastriano against Shapiro in November:Here's how the governor race in Pennsylvania shapes up with Josh Shapiro vs. Doug Mastriano
That doesn’t make Trump a political pariah by any means, as he clearly has many supporters who not only look to him on who to vote for right now but also want him to run again for the nation’s highest office.
“What’s fascinating about this is even if they don’t have the Trump endorsement, I want you to name me a Republican candidate for governor or Senate that’s run away from Trump. You can’t find one,” Madonna said of the majority of the 2022 primary race.
“They all embrace (Trump), in varying degrees … because they understand the large percentage of Republican voters who want him to run again in 2024 and who think that in fact there was widespread corruption in the 2020 Pennsylvania presidential election,” Madonna added.
Barnette was a long-time supporter of the unfounded claims of election fraud pushed by Trump, alleging similar problems cost her a victory against incumbent Congresswoman Madeleine Dean in 2020 for the mostly Democratic 4th Congressional District.
With a clear fracture among die-hard Trump supporters and traditional Republican conservatives, Trump can be both an asset and a liability for Oz or McCormick in November.
If Oz wins, Chen said he expects Fetterman’s campaign to lean into some of the same attacks he’s been using but with more emphasis on Trump’s endorsement.
“I think you're going to see the attack exactly as Fetterman is hitting (Oz) now, the idea that this is just another Hollywood guy, that this is Donald Trump 2.0,” Chen said.
The Trump endorsement could also hurt Oz in attracting Democratic voters, who seem mostly unified in their primary choice.
Fetterman wins Senate Dem nomination:Fetterman wins U.S. Senate Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania
Even for Democrats and other voters who don’t like Fetterman, the alternative of a Trump-backed candidate might be enough to push them away from either Oz or McCormick.
“I actually think you’re going to hear Donald Trump 2.0 no matter who the nominee is,” Chen added.
McCormick might be in the best position to avoid that problem if he wins, despite praising the former president and seeking his endorsement earlier in the race, according to Chen.
“McCormick has the best resume of the candidates. West Point, served overseas, the Wall Street background … he is the most Toomey-esque of the candidates, in the sense of that cerebral, thoughtful conservative, but in the primary, he pivoted to Trump,” Chen said as McCormick climbed in the polls Tuesday night.
While McCormick could dump Trump if it looks like more of a bane than a boon, that could also backfire as McCormick could find himself labeled as a “flip-flopper,” Chen added.
Trump has also repeatedly disparaged Toomey as an ineffective leader, making a comparison to the retiring senator a problem for Trump supporters.
“Trying to play that more Toomey-esque approach is probably going to be wiser in a general election, but he’s already defined himself as a MAGA Republican, so it may look like he’s flip-flopping,” Chen said.
High stakes in PA race
The Senate race in Pennsylvania is one of several key battleground states that have the eyes of the nation fixated.
Democrats and Republicans are tied in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris a potential lead for Democrats in the event of a tie-breaking vote.
The race has already seen a push of political spending from across the country, with just 38% of itemized contributions across both party races reported to the Federal Elections Commission through March coming from the commonwealth.
Out of over 8.73 million voters in Pennsylvania, about 46% are Democratic and 39% are Republican; a difference of about 550,000 voters.
Between 2016 and 2021, about 72,418 voters per year changed their registrations to Democrat from another party while Republican voters saw their registration conversions increase at a rate of about 84,143 voters per year.
Even with a divided GOP electorate for the Senate race, the purple commonwealth is trending toward red and pattern, along with myriad other complexities, make this race a true toss up for the time being.
This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Here's what the GOP Senate race in PA could mean in November
