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What Does New Residential Investment Corp.’s (NYSE:NRZ) Share Price Indicate?

Simply Wall St

New Residential Investment Corp. (NYSE:NRZ), which is in the mortgage reits business, and is based in United States, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on New Residential Investment’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for New Residential Investment

What is New Residential Investment worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my relative valuation model. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 5.86x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 10.78x, which means if you buy New Residential Investment today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe New Residential Investment should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond where it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because New Residential Investment’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What kind of growth will New Residential Investment generate?

NYSE:NRZ Past and Future Earnings, February 26th 2019

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of New Residential Investment, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -15%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? NRZ seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on NRZ, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on NRZ for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on NRZ should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on New Residential Investment. You can find everything you need to know about New Residential Investment in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in New Residential Investment, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.