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Does Tilly's's (NYSE:TLYS) Share Price Gain of 75% Match Its Business Performance?

Simply Wall St

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Tilly's, Inc. (NYSE:TLYS) shareholders have seen the share price rise 75% over three years, well in excess of the market return (39%, not including dividends).

See our latest analysis for Tilly's

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Tilly's achieved compound earnings per share growth of 47% per year. The average annual share price increase of 20% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:TLYS Past and Future Earnings, April 11th 2019

We know that Tilly's has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Tilly's's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Tilly's hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 115% exceeds its share price return of 75%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Tilly's had a tough year, with a total loss of 0.9%, against a market gain of about 9.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4.0%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.