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Does The TransGlobe Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:TGA) Share Price Tend To Follow The Market?

Simply Wall St

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Anyone researching TransGlobe Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:TGA) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.

Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock's exposure to market risk (volatility). Before we go on, it's worth noting that Warren Buffett pointed out in his 2014 letter to shareholders that 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' Having said that, beta can still be rather useful. The first thing to understand about beta is that the beta of the overall market is one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

See our latest analysis for TransGlobe Energy

What does TGA's beta value mean to investors?

Zooming in on TransGlobe Energy, we see it has a five year beta of 1.11. This is above 1, so historically its share price has been influenced by the broader volatility of the stock market. If the past is any guide, we would expect that TransGlobe Energy shares will rise quicker than the markets in times of optimism, but fall faster in times of pessimism. Share price volatility is well worth considering, but most long term investors consider the history of revenue and earnings growth to be more important. Take a look at how TransGlobe Energy fares in that regard, below.

NasdaqGS:TGA Income Statement, April 8th 2019

Does TGA's size influence the expected beta?

TransGlobe Energy is a rather small company. It has a market capitalisation of US$133m, which means it is probably under the radar of most investors. It takes less money to influence the share price of a very small company. This may explain the excess volatility implied by this beta value.

What this means for you:

Beta only tells us that the TransGlobe Energy share price is sensitive to broader market movements. This could indicate that it is a high growth company, or is heavily influenced by sentiment because it is speculative. Alternatively, it could have operating leverage in its business model. Ultimately, beta is an interesting metric, but there's plenty more to learn. This article aims to educate investors about beta values, but it's well worth looking at important company-specific fundamentals such as TransGlobe Energy’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for TGA’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for TGA’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has TGA been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of TGA's historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how TGA measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.