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Does VSE’s Share Price Gain of 46% Match Its Business Performance?

Simply Wall St

The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But you can do a lot better than that by buying good quality businesses for attractive prices. For example, the VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:VSEC) share price is up 46% in the last five years, slightly above the market return. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 29% in the last year.

See our latest analysis for VSE

To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, VSE achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7.4% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 7.9% per year. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn’t morphed very much. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NasdaqGS:VSEC Past and Future Earnings, March 5th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on VSE’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, VSE’s TSR for the last 5 years was 51%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 4.0% in the last year, VSE shareholders lost 28% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 8.6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. If you would like to research VSE in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

We will like VSE better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.