Anyone researching Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (NYSE:XIN) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.
Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk' in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.
What does XIN's beta value mean to investors?
Looking at the last five years, Xinyuan Real Estate has a beta of 1.62. The fact that this is well above 1 indicates that its share price movements have shown sensitivity to overall market volatility. If this beta value holds true in the future, Xinyuan Real Estate shares are likely to rise more than the market when the market is going up, but fall faster when the market is going down. Beta is worth considering, but it's also important to consider whether Xinyuan Real Estate is growing earnings and revenue. You can take a look for yourself, below.
Could XIN's size cause it to be more volatile?
Xinyuan Real Estate is a noticeably small company, with a market capitalisation of US$244m. Most companies this size are not always actively traded. It takes less money to influence the share price of a very small company. This may explain the excess volatility implied by this beta value.
What this means for you:
Since Xinyuan Real Estate tends to moves up when the market is going up, and down when it's going down, potential investors may wish to reflect on the overall market, when considering the stock. This article aims to educate investors about beta values, but it's well worth looking at important company-specific fundamentals such as Xinyuan Real Estate’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:
- Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for XIN’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for XIN’s outlook.
- Past Track Record: Has XIN been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of XIN's historicals for more clarity.
- Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how XIN measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.
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