- US Dollar nears critical technical levels versus Euro, other counterparts
- A sharp drop in forex volatility prices nonetheless points to slower currency moves ahead
- Our trading bias has shifted away from high-volatility systems with several key exceptions
The US Dollar and Euro might see slower price action in the week ahead, but what could change that? More importantly what trade setups are worth watching?
Last week’s sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls data left the US Dollar noticeably weaker across the board and through key price levels. Our Senior Technical Strategist highlights why several key USD levels will be critical to watch—particularly versus the Euro and British Pound.
Yet it’s important to note that FX volatility prices have fallen noticeably; with the key exception of British Pound economic event risk and some potential Fed-linked Dollar moves we see little reason to watch for major currency shifts. Absent a breakout in key pairs and change in market conditions, we’ll position ourselves for slower-moving markets.
We recently favored high-volatility trading strategies and our proprietary Breakout2 trading system. Yet the broader shift in market expectations pulls focus towards other systems. The trend-following Momentum2 remains attractive more generally with the important exception of some range-bound USD pairs.
We’ll keep a close eye on the British Pound, US Dollar, and other key currencies and post any up-to-the-minute updates via our forex real time news feed. Take a look at full strategy preferences below and sign up for future e-mail updates via my distribution list.
Forex Volatility Prices Have Fallen Sharply Ahead of What May be a Quiet Week for FX Markets
Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.