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Don't Race Out To Buy Argan, Inc. (NYSE:AGX) Just Because It's Going Ex-Dividend

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see Argan, Inc. (NYSE:AGX) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 3 days. Ex-dividend means that investors that purchase the stock on or after the 18th of December will not receive this dividend, which will be paid on the 29th of December.

The upcoming dividend for Argan is US$1.25 per share, increased from last year's total dividends per share of US$1.00. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. So we need to investigate whether Argan can afford its dividend, and if the dividend could grow.

View our latest analysis for Argan

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. Argan paid out a disturbingly high 220% of its profit as dividends last year, which makes us concerned there's something we don't fully understand in the business. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. What's good is that dividends were well covered by free cash flow, with the company paying out 2.2% of its cash flow last year.

It's good to see that while Argan's dividends were not covered by profits, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. Still, if the company repeatedly paid a dividend greater than its profits, we'd be concerned. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

historic-dividend
historic-dividend

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies with falling earnings are riskier for dividend shareholders. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. With that in mind, we're discomforted by Argan's 26% per annum decline in earnings in the past five years. Such a sharp decline casts doubt on the future sustainability of the dividend.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Since the start of our data, eight years ago, Argan has lifted its dividend by approximately 6.6% a year on average. The only way to pay higher dividends when earnings are shrinking is either to pay out a larger percentage of profits, spend cash from the balance sheet, or borrow the money. Argan is already paying out a high percentage of its income, so without earnings growth, we're doubtful of whether this dividend will grow much in the future.

To Sum It Up

Is Argan worth buying for its dividend? It's never great to see earnings per share declining, especially when a company is paying out 220% of its profit as dividends, which we feel is uncomfortably high. However, the cash payout ratio was much lower - good news from a dividend perspective - which makes us wonder why there is such a mis-match between income and cashflow. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

With that being said, if you're still considering Argan as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Argan you should know about.

If you're in the market for dividend stocks, we recommend checking our list of top dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.