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Dorian LPG Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

·4 min read

As you might know, Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE:LPG) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$54m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 88%, coming in at just US$0.01 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on DorianG after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for DorianG

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering DorianG, is for revenues of US$280.3m in 2021, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 8.8% reduction in DorianG's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 9.7% to US$1.35 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$275.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.22 in 2021. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$11.20, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic DorianG analyst has a price target of US$15.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 8.8%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% next year. It's pretty clear that DorianG's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around DorianG's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that DorianG's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple DorianG analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for DorianG that you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.