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What Are The Drivers Of Alchemy Resources Limited’s (ASX:ALY) Risks?

Jacob Boyd

If you are a shareholder in Alchemy Resources Limited’s (ASX:ALY), or are thinking about investing in the company, knowing how it contributes to the risk and reward profile of your portfolio is important. The beta measures ALY’s exposure to the wider market risk, which reflects changes in economic and political factors. Different characteristics of a stock expose it to various levels of market risk, and the market as a whole represents a beta value of one. A stock with a beta greater than one is considered more sensitive to market-wide shocks compared to a stock that trades below the value of one.

Check out our latest analysis for Alchemy Resources

What does ALY’s beta value mean?

With a five-year beta of 0.24, Alchemy Resources appears to be a less volatile company compared to the rest of the market. This means the stock is more defensive against the ups and downs of a stock market, moving by less than the entire market index in times of change. ALY’s beta implies it may be a stock that investors with high-beta portfolios might find relevant if they wanted to reduce their exposure to market risk, especially during times of downturns.

Could ALY’s size and industry cause it to be more volatile?

A market capitalisation of AU$5.29M puts ALY in the category of small-cap stocks, which tends to possess higher beta than larger companies. Moreover, ALY’s industry, metals and mining, is considered to be cyclical, which means it is more volatile than the market over the economic cycle. As a result, we should expect a high beta for the small-cap ALY but a low beta for the metals and mining industry. It seems as though there is an inconsistency in risks portrayed by ALY’s size and industry relative to its actual beta value. A potential driver of this variance can be a fundamental factor, which we will take a look at next.

ASX:ALY Income Statement May 16th 18

Can ALY’s asset-composition point to a higher beta?

During times of economic downturn, low demand may cause companies to readjust production of their goods and services. It is more difficult for companies to lower their cost, if the majority of these costs are generated by fixed assets. Therefore, this is a type of risk which is associated with higher beta. I examine ALY’s ratio of fixed assets to total assets to see whether the company is highly exposed to the risk of this type of constraint. With a fixed-assets-to-total-assets ratio of greater than 30%, ALY appears to be a company that invests a large amount of capital in assets that are hard to scale down on short-notice. Thus, we can expect ALY to be more volatile in the face of market movements, relative to its peers of similar size but with a lower proportion of fixed assets on their books. However, this is the opposite to what ALY’s actual beta value suggests, which is lower stock volatility relative to the market.

What this means for you:

You could benefit from lower risk during times of economic decline by holding onto ALY. Take into account your portfolio sensitivity to the market before you invest in the stock, as well as where we are in the current economic cycle. Depending on the composition of your portfolio, ALY may be a valuable stock to hold onto in order to cushion the impact of a downturn. In order to fully understand whether ALY is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Alchemy Resources’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to complete your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Financial Health: Is ALY’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
  2. Past Track Record: Has ALY been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of ALY’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.