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Durable Goods Order in June Lags Expectation

·4 min read
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It’s a big day for news items relating to the stock market: economic reads, the start of a new Fed meeting, and a slew of Q2 earnings on the hottest day of earnings season yet is already underway. Let’s get to it:

Durable Goods Orders for June came out this morning — a classic “good news/bad news” scenario. Though the headline numbers was expected to be +2.0% for the month, it only made it to +0.8%. That’s the bad news. Revisions to May’s headline, however, were significant: +3.2% versus the +2.3% originally reported. Averaged out over two months, today’s headline doesn’t look nearly so bad.

Stripping out Transportation costs, this figure drops to +0.3% for last month, but May was revised up to +0.5%. Ex-Defense orders was +1.0%. And the durable goods proxy for normal business spending — non-Defense, ex-Aircraft — reached +0.5%, the same as May’s big upward revision. Shipments versus Orders was +0.6%. These numbers are all preliminary, meaning subject to change over time.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May is also out this morning, setting a new all-time record: +16.6% in home prices is the highest annual rate ever recorded, going back to the start of this index in 1987. This follows a slightly downwardly revised +14.8% for the month of April, as continued low mortgage rates met high demand for short supply in housing. However, these figures are in arrears; have high prices cooled this market in real time?

Reporting Q2 earnings after today’s close is a veritable who’s-who of major corporations in 2021: Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Alphabet GOOGL, Starbucks SBUX and Visa V. Earnings season, by and large, has been very good so far with about 25% of the S&P 500 already reported — even with heightened expectations related to the Great Reopening. There are also plenty of companies out with Q2 numbers this morning, as well:

General Electric GE topped earnings estimates, reporting 5 cents per share versus 3 cents expected. This is a big improvement from the -15 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $18.28 billion also surpassed expectations of $17.75 billion. This is the third earnings beat for the company in the last four quarters. Shares are up nearly 3% in pre-market trading, and have outperformed the S&P 500 year to date.

United Parcel Service UPS also posted beats on both earnings and revenues for its Q2 this morning: $3.06 per share versus $2.75 expected (and $2.13 per share a year ago), on sales of $23.42 billion which outperformed estimates by 1.47%. This makes four-straight earnings beats for the delivery and logistics giant, though shares are down -2.3% in pre-market trading, though up 24% year to date.

3M Co. MMM also reliably beat estimates on both top and bottom lines: $2.59 per share posted a 15% surprise from the $2.25 in the Zacks consensus (and well above $1.78 per share from the June quarter last year) on $8.98 billion in revenues which outpaced expectations by +4.82%. Shares of 3M have been underperforming the S&P 500 through the first half of the year, though the stock is up on the Q2 beat.

American homebuilder PulteGroup PHM met estimates exactly on its bottom line this morning at $1.72 per share, stronger than the $1.15 reported a year ago. Revenues came in at $3.36 billion for the quarter, down -4.5% from the Zacks consensus. Homebuilders have been feeling the headwinds of supply constraints and subsequent input costs. Shares are positive in the pre-market, however.

Market indexes are treading lightly in today’s pre-market. In fact, the Dow is cashing in a bit, down 95 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on opposite sides of breakeven, -6 points and +5 points, respectively. But there is plenty of grist for the mill today, meaning plenty of opportunities to take things in a definitive direction.

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General Electric Company (GE) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Apple Inc. (AAPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Visa Inc. (V) : Free Stock Analysis Report
3M Company (MMM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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