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DXJ Could Soar if This USD/JPY Forecast is Accurate


Up 33.1% year-to-date, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) does not need any other superlatives attached to it. Still, there are plenty of others. DXJ is the top asset-gathering ETF this year and with over $10.5 billion in assets under management, it has an outside chance of capturing the crown of biggest Japan ETF from the rival iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEArca: EWJ).

DXJ’s chart is also alluring. The ETF recently broke out of a consolidation pattern and that breakout could the set stage for DXJ to return to its previous highs. DXJ tumbled from the mid-$50s to the low $40s starting in May and into June as markets started questioning the efficacy of Abenomics. DXJ is not tumbling anymore as the ETF has surged over 9% in the past month. [DXJ Could Challenge Rival for Japan ETF Supremacy]

Speaking of technical analysis, at least one currency strategist has a bearish outlook on the Japanese yen and that should translate into bullishness for DXJ, which ascended to prominence due in large part to its hedged USD/JPY feature.

“The yen’s failure to break through key resistance at 97.94 per dollar Wednesday confirmed a dollar-yen bull trade that will see the pair test 106 and then 109.80, which would be the yen’s weakest level since August 2008,”  JosephCiolli reported for Bloomberg, citing MacNeil Curry, head of foreign-exchange and interest-rates technical strategy at Bank if America Merrill Lynch.

USD/JPY currently trades below 100, so it would need to gain over 6% to reach Curry’s first target. The 52-week high for the pair is 103.18, which was touched on May 23. Just two days earlier, DXJ flirted with a close of $53. On that basis, it is not a stretch to assume that if USD/JPY rises to 106, DXJ could make a run to $55 and if the pair flirts with 110, the ETF could move to the high $50s. [An Olympic Jolt for Japan ETFs]

Curry’s outlook on USD/JPY came just a day after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said “Clearly, Japan is now a Buy,” regarding Japanese stocks and less than two weeks after the country was awarded the 2020 Summer Olympics.

In other potentially good news for yen bears and DXJ bulls, Bank of Japan Board Member Takahide Kiuchi said earlier this week BoJ could expand its yen-depressing quantitative easing program.

WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund

ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of DXJ.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.