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DXY V S&P Feb 14 2021

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Brian Twomey
·4 min read
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To respectfully indulge words from the last post for context:

Overall, EUR/USD was the first currency in August 2020 to break above its 5 year average at 1.1300’s then the 10 year average in December 2020 at 1.2100’s. EUR/USD is categorized in the class of a risk asset and non USD currency.

EUR/USD’s early break to its 5 year average set remainder 27 currencies on a course of deep perspective as non USD currency pairs had to not only match EUR/USD’s break to significant averages but the 1000 pip rise in GBP/USD, 700 for AUD/USD and other non USD currency pairs traded weekly from overbought to overbought and a non normal price circumstance. EUR/USD’s break threw normal price markets deeply off course since August 2020.

Non USD currency pairs such as DXY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY only option since August 2020 was to concur with EUR/USD and non USD rises by trading deeply oversold week to week and to break 5 and 10 year averages.

EUR/USD and non USD currency pairs as risk assets followed risk asset counterparts in stock markets higher to current richter scale overbought levels. The S&P’s at 3900.00’s trade at extreme overbought levels. The DAX achieved all time highs. Stock market longs are virtually impossible until a significant correction occurs.

DXY

DXY for example just broke above its 10 year monthly average at 89.95 and contains a long way to travel to the 5 year average at 95.00’s. A currency pair to trade at a 10 year monthly average is not only a low, low price but extraordinary and highlights the magnitude to the rises and falls since last August.

Next averages above to break are located at 91.43, 92.78 then 94.39 and 94.16. DXY from monthly averages 1 to 7 years faces stiff resistance from 94.00’s to 95.00’s. A break through this brick wall then DXY will travel easily to 97.00’s and 99.00’s.

DXY below 89.95 targets 86.43, 84.32 and 81.83 at extreme oversold.

Targets for DXY above 89.95 are located at 90.86, above 91.43 then 92.15, 92.47 and 92.66. Above 92.78 targets 92.87 and 92.89.

DXY from current ranges from 89.95 to 92.78 trade at its widest ranges. As DXY travels higher then ranges severely compress. The opposite is true for EUR/USD as the higher it trades then ranges open much wider.

Despite a low price and trade below monthly 5 year averages, DXY is mid range to oversold/ overbought.

S&P’s

DXY viewed from the S&P’s informs trade location miles above the 5 year monthly average at 2722.43 and at overbought to extremes. Overbought S&P’s reveals a healthy correction is on the way, DXY higher and EUR/USD as well as non USD currency pairs to follow much lower.

The S&P’s are held by immediate averages at 3257.68, 3119.54 and 2989.17. A correction targets 3598.53, 3416.84 and 3300.20. A 400 point correction to the S&P’s assumes DXY travels 300 ish pips higher and breaks above 92.78 to trade between 92.78 to 94.39.

S&P averages from 3257.68 travels every 100 points to 2200.00’s at the 10 year monthly average. Current S&P’s ranges are fairly suppressed however as S&P’s drop then ranges expand as the downside gains progresses.

GOLD

Gold trades above its 5 year monthly average at 1461.20 and trades misaligned to the S&P’s. Gold and the DXY are the same assets and should trade below 5 year monthly averages while the S&P’s trade above.

Gold’s drop is held by 1815.65 and below targets 1642.17 and 1543.98. Gold is deeply overbought from a medium and long term perspective. Gold is finished above at 1943.62 and short is the only trade available.

Moving forward, long USD and DXY is the best option while short Gold and the S&P’s although Gold lacks any real range capability. Gold viewed from 150 to 200 points is a viable option as it fails to contain any big price moves.

 

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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