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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – March 25, 2019 Forecast

James Hyerczyk

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are under pressure shortly after the cash market opening. The selling is being fueled amid concerns over a potential U.S. recession later in the year after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for growth and implied it would not raise rates this year due to the weakening global economy.

At 14:33 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading 25471, down 99 or -0.39%.

Talk of a recession surfaced on Friday when a plunge in Treasury yields drove the 10-year Treasury note yield below the 3-month Treasury bill, causing an inversion in the yield curve. Historical data showed that this usually means the economy will fall into recession at some point in the future.

The technical bounce we are seeing after the opening is being fueled by better-than-expected German Consumer Confidence.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The current downside momentum is being fueled by the closing price reversal top at 26145 from March 19. It has put the Dow in a position to challenge the last main bottom at 25246. A trade through this bottom will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also down. This reaffirms the shift in momentum.

The short-term range is 25246 to 26145. Its retracement zone at 25589 to 25696 is resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action and the current price at 25471, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 25422.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25422 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential intraday retracement into a cluster of levels at 25589, 25598, 25623 and 25633. This area provided resistance earlier in the session. Overtaking it later in the day could trigger a further rally into the main 50% level at 25696. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 25422 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further break into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 25334 and 25290. The latter is the last potential support angle before the 25246 main bottom.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire