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E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Wrapping Up Terrible First-Half Performance

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September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading sharply lower shortly before the cash market close on Thursday as investors get ready to wrap up one of the worst first-half performances in history.

Although the technology-based index has been trending lower since November 2021, it’s been really hit hard since the Ukraine-Russia war began on February 24. Compounding the sell-off is soaring inflation, higher interest rates and, more recently, a possible U.S. recession.

At 19:45 GMT, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 11536.50, down 154.50 or -1.32%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at $280.22, down $3.58 or -1.26%.

In economic news, a Commerce Department report showed U.S. consumer spending rose less than expected in May. While the report suggested inflation had probably peaked, price pressures are expected to stick around, which means the U.S. Federal Reserve should remain on its aggressive policy-tightening path.

Daily September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Short-Term Forecast

Trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 11524.50 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Thursday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 11524.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Consequently, look for the index to eventually retest the last main bottom at 11068.50 if this move creates enough downside momentum.

Taking out 11068.50 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could lead to a quick test of the November 2, 2020 main bottom at 10944.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 11524.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a quick move into the long-term 50% level at 11671.25.

Overcoming 11671.25 will be a sign of strength. This could trigger a late session short-covering rally into the intermediate retracement zone at 12021.25 to 12246.00. This zone essentially stopped the buying at 12262.00 on June 27.

Side Notes

The short-term direction is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 11671.25 and 11524.25.

Aggressive counter-trend buyers are going to try to overcome 11671.25 in an effort to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. Sellers are going to try to drive the index through 11524.25. Their goal is to continue the downtrend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire