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It's been a good week for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.3% to US$131. Revenues of US$126m beat expectations by a respectable 5.7%, although statutory losses per share increased. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals lost US$2.18, which was 33% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the 20 analysts covering Alnylam Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$803.4m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a huge 100% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$5.22. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$835.2m and US$4.82 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a per-share loss expectations.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$163, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alnylam Pharmaceuticals at US$225 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$90.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 100% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 47% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$163, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals you should know about.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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