Earnings Beat: Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:AUTL) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts
The third-quarter results for Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:AUTL) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were 144% better than analyst models forecast, at US$680k. Perhaps unsurprisingly, statutory losses were also slightly larger than expected, at US$0.72 per share, reflecting the higher costs which were likely incurred in generating that revenue. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Autolus Therapeutics
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Autolus Therapeutics is for revenues of US$1.37m in 2021, implying a considerable 15% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$3.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.20m and losses of US$3.15 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.
There were no major changes to the US$28.86consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation than growing sales. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Autolus Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$50.00 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 15% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 20% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Autolus Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates sales are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.86, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Autolus Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Autolus Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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