County Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICBK) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.7% to hit US$12m. County Bancorp also reported a statutory profit of US$0.40, which was an impressive 102% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, County Bancorp's six analysts are forecasting 2020 revenues to be US$48.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.05 in 2020, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$47.9m and US$0.028 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target held steady at US$22.58, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic County Bancorp analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 0.9% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 9.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that County Bancorp's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at County Bancorp. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that County Bancorp's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for County Bancorp going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with County Bancorp .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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