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Is an Earnings Beat in Store for Ameriprise (AMP) in Q1?

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Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 26, after market close. While its revenues are anticipated to have witnessed a rise in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, earnings are projected to have declined.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Higher revenues along with an improvement in assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balance supported results. However, a rise in expenses was a headwind.

Ameriprise has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three and lagged in one of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 10%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.73 per share, which indicates a decline of 12.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The estimate has been unchanged over the past seven days.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $3.29 billion, which indicates a 9.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Estimates & Key Factors to Note for First-Quarter 2021

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of the company’s total net revenues) is pegged at $2.08 billion for the to-be-reported quarter, which suggests a rise of 3.6% from the prior quarter’s reported number.

However, the consensus estimate for net investment income of $285 million suggests a decline of 10.4% from the previous quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for premiums is pegged at $362 million, indicating a 3.5% sequential decline. Likewise, the consensus mark for other revenues of $69 million indicates a 2.8% sequential decline.

Nevertheless, the consensus estimate for distribution fees of $457 million indicates a rise of 8.3% sequentially.

Notably, the company’s Asset Management segment has been recording net outflows over the past several quarters, which has been negatively impacting asset growth. However, the Advice & Wealth Management (“AWM”) segment is likely to have recorded growth in assets in the first quarter, based on expectations of improved advisor productivity.

While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have resulted in controlled general and administration (G&A) expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the first quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better, which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of +0.74%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other finance stocks that you may want to consider, as according to our model, these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

The Earnings ESP for Invesco IVZ is +1.06% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report quarterly numbers on Apr 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Capital One Financial Corporation COF is slated to report quarterly results on Apr 27. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.01% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

T. Rowe Price Group TROW is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 29. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +0.57%.

Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2021

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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) : Free Stock Analysis Report

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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