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Earnings Beat: VistaGen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTGN) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts

·3 min read

VistaGen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTGN) just released its latest second-quarter report and things are not looking great. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of US$334k missing forecasts by 87%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of US$0.05 some 233% below prior forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for VistaGen Therapeutics


Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for VistaGen Therapeutics from dual analysts is for revenues of US$2.67m in 2021 which, if met, would be a huge 699% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 23% to US$0.25. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.50m and losses of US$0.33 per share in 2021. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about VistaGen Therapeutics' future following the latest consensus numbers, with a the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The consensus price target rose 200% to US$3.00, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the VistaGen Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that VistaGen Therapeutics is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to grow manyfold. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 24% annual decline over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% per year. So it looks like VistaGen Therapeutics is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on VistaGen Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for VistaGen Therapeutics (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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