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The ExOne Company (NASDAQ:XONE) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Overall results were decent, with revenues of US$17m beating estimates by41%. Statutory losses were subsequently less thanthe analysts had expected, at US$0.19 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ExOne's three analysts is for revenues of US$61.1m in 2021, which would reflect an okay 2.8% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 14% from last year to US$0.66. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$61.6m and US$0.65 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although sales forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a to its losses per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$14.83, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ExOne, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$18.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that ExOne's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 2.8% increase next year well below the historical 7.3%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.3% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ExOne is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that ExOne's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$14.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ExOne going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with ExOne , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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