There's been a notable change in appetite for Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 14% to US$20.19. Revenues came in at CN¥6.8b, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of CN¥3.99 per share, roughly in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Bilibili are now predicting revenues of CN¥10.4b in 2020. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 54% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching CN¥5.21 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥10.1b and losses of CN¥4.14 per share in 2020. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a pretty serious reduction to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The average price target rose 7.8% to CN¥192, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Bilibili, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥234 and the most bearish at CN¥132 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bilibili's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Bilibili's historical trends, as next year's 54% revenue growth is roughly in line with 52% annual revenue growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that Bilibili is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Bilibili going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Bilibili that you should be aware of.
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