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Kite Realty Group Trust (NYSE:KRG) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 6.1% better than analyst forecasts at US$194m. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were US$0.08 per share, some 6.1% smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kite Realty Group Trust's four analysts is for revenues of US$795.0m in 2022, which would reflect a substantial 60% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 42% to US$0.33. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$748.4m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2022. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a favorable reduction in loss per share in particular.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$26.45, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Kite Realty Group Trust, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$24.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kite Realty Group Trust is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Kite Realty Group Trust is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 86% annualised growth until the end of 2022. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 2.1% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.4% per year. So it looks like Kite Realty Group Trust is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$26.45, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kite Realty Group Trust. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Kite Realty Group Trust going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Kite Realty Group Trust (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.