Earnings Miss: Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad Missed EPS By 7.8% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

·4 min read

Last week, you might have seen that Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:CARLSBG) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to RM22.98 in the past week. Revenues of RM2.4b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at RM1.04, missing estimates by 7.8%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad


Following the latest results, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of RM2.50b in 2023. This would be a credible 3.6% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 10% to RM1.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of RM2.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM1.18 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at RM25.61, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at RM30.77 and the most bearish at RM21.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.6% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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