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Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. (ATH:MOH) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting €2.5b, earnings missed analyst forecasts by 17%, coming in at just €0.53 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries provided consensus estimates of €9.14b revenue in 2020, which would reflect a small 4.6% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Earnings per share are expected to soar 65% to €3.04. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €9.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.04 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Analysts reconfirmed their price target of €23.60, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €27.30 and the most bearish at €18.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries shareholders.
In addition, we can look to Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries's past performance and see whether business is expected to improve, and if the company is expected to perform better than wider market. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 4.6% a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same market are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although analyst forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at €23.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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