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Earnings Miss: Vector Limited Missed EPS By 15% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

·3 min read

Vector Limited (NZSE:VCT) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at NZ$1.3b, although statutory earnings per share came in 15% below what the analysts expected, at NZ$0.16 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vector


Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vector's four analysts is for revenues of NZ$1.40b in 2023, which would reflect a credible 4.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 24% to NZ$0.20. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NZ$1.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.18 in 2023. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 7.5% to NZ$4.44per share. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Vector, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$4.76 and the most bearish at NZ$3.59 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Vector's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.3% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Vector is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vector following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Vector analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Vector that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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