Earnings Report: Ameris Bancorp Missed Revenue Estimates By 6.4%
Ameris Bancorp (NASDAQ:ABCB) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 6.4% short of analyst estimates at US$1.0b, and statutory earnings of US$4.99 per share missed forecasts by 3.1%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Ameris Bancorp
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ameris Bancorp's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.16b in 2023, which would reflect a notable 14% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 5.2% to US$5.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.39 in 2023. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 7.5% to US$60.20, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ameris Bancorp at US$63.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$56.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Ameris Bancorp is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ameris Bancorp's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ameris Bancorp's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ameris Bancorp is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ameris Bancorp. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ameris Bancorp analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ameris Bancorp has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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