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As you might know, CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFB) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Earnings overall missed expectations, with revenue falling 41% short of analyst estimates, at US$102m. Statutory earnings per share were US$0.24, 2.4% shy of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CrossFirst Bankshares' five analysts is for revenues of US$169.5m in 2021, which would reflect a huge 67% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 825% to US$0.68. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$169.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 10.0% to US$13.20despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of CrossFirst Bankshares' earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic CrossFirst Bankshares analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that CrossFirst Bankshares' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 67% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11%p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that CrossFirst Bankshares is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CrossFirst Bankshares going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for CrossFirst Bankshares that you should be aware of.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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