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TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to US$38.62 in the week after its latest full-year results. It looks to have been a bit of a mixed result. While revenues of US$270m fell 13% short of what the analysts had predicted, statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 exceeded expectations by 4.7%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TriCo Bancshares after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from TriCo Bancshares' six analysts is for revenues of US$311.1m in 2021, which would reflect a notable 15% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 35% to US$2.92. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$310.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.51 in 2021. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 6.7% to US$39.67. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on TriCo Bancshares, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$43.00 and the most bearish at US$31.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the TriCo Bancshares' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that TriCo Bancshares' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.0%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that TriCo Bancshares is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around TriCo Bancshares' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for TriCo Bancshares going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for TriCo Bancshares that you need to be mindful of.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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