Yanlord Land Group Limited (SGX:Z25) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Earnings came in short of expectations, with revenues of CN¥2.9b missing the mark by 53%, and earnings per share of CN¥1.86 falling 4.0% short. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Yanlord Land Group from four analysts is for revenues of CN¥28.0b in 2020, which is a substantial 116% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Earnings per share are expected to surge 116% to CN¥1.68. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥27.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.69 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at S$1.69. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Yanlord Land Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at S$2.83 and the most bearish at S$1.30 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
It can also be useful to step back and take a broader view of how analyst forecasts compare to Yanlord Land Group's performance in recent years. It's clear from the latest estimates that Yanlord Land Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with forecast 116% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Yanlord Land Group is expected to grow much faster than its market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that Yanlord Land Group's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥1.69, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yanlord Land Group going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of Yanlord Land Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Yanlord Land Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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